Market SitRep · CW38 2026 · Thursday
Monday the oven was already hot.
by Fenris | Market Intelligence
GM!
Market snapshot (live vs ~7d, as-of 17 September 2026, 13:45 UTC):
Fed hiked 25 bp. First hike since 2023.
The Fed, the US central bank, raised its policy rate by 1/4 point on 16 September at 2:00 p.m. EDT. The target range is now 3-3/4 to 4 percent. The vote was 12-0, first hike since 2023.
Their September forecasts put the 2026 funds rate at 4.1, up from 3.8 in June. 2027 is 4.1, longer run 3.2. Primary credit, the Fed's backup lending rate for banks, moves to 4.0% from 17 September.
Why it matters: a higher policy rate makes holding risk more expensive. This is bearish short-term for Crypto.
We will keep eyes on the next sessions.
Sources
- FOMC statement, 16 September
- SEP projections, 16 September
- Implementation note
- mbhullar on the decision (X)
Senate missed CLARITY by one. 49-50.
On 15 September at 2:19 p.m. the Senate failed cloture on H.R. 3633 (the vote that opens debate). CLARITY is the US market-structure bill that would split crypto oversight between the SEC and the CFTC. Yea 49, Nay 50, not voting 1 (Coons). Needed 60.
The House already passed it 294-134 on 17 July 2025. Tillis filed reconsideration the same day, and the bill remains on the calendar.
The train needed 60 punches and got 49.
Why it matters: US crypto market rules stay in limbo, and sentiment took a hit. This is mixed-to-bearish for US policy.
We will watch the reconsideration.
Sources
Conclusion
From these points we conclude:
First hike since 2023
Holding risk just got more expensive.
Senate missed CLARITY by one
Cloture failed 49-50, and US crypto rules stay in limbo.
GM.
Software and engineering services. Not financial, tax, or investment advice.