SitReps
Jan 7, 2026
Market SitRep
CW 02
Fenris | Quantitative Systems Engineer
Bullish USA?
The United States are doing very well at the moment,
and the S&P 500 has climbed to new records to a total of 6,944, up >43% since last April’s nuke.
The USA is winning right now, in operations against their adversaries and in the markets.
The reasons are both found in extremely positive sentiment, but also the strategic outlook:
POTUS is acquiring strategic resources, removing adversaries abroad, and refactoring their sphere of influence in adaptation to 2026’s realities – in the U.S.’ favor – and successfully so. This adds clarity to hierarchy in today's world, thus commiting to positive sentiment. Who is winning or losing is often negligible: Uncertainty is what would add to negative sentiment.
Performance
We are up and flying, and our systems are greatly in profit.
But these trades are not done yet:
Bitcoin is still in the range established since the end of November.
(You can see the entries in the image)
Range risks
With this range comes its baggage.
Liquidation levels are highly imbalanced (acc to Coinglass), for BTC on a $10k price move:
The asymmetry found shows significant leveraged long positions with liquidation levels towards a price of $84,000, with a larger cluster nearby at $88,000, for a total of $10bn.
With just one fifth of that waiting in short liquidation levels, on the other side at $103,000.
If the market moves up, it is unlikely due to liquidation fishing.
At the top of the range, I am afraid to stress that significant downside risk remains, albeit at the same price move distance as the upside.
If sentiment overrides moves towards liquidation levels, $94,500 is the level you want to look at for holding for BTC to be breaking back out.
Funding rates remain somewhat low and balanced, so the market hasn’t made up its mind yet.
After months of chop, and still in the range, the market is right to remain careful.
Whether our current trades run further, or get closed due to reversals, is totally open right now and the automations will take care of them.
Job Report
Given the indecisive nature of the market, the U.S. jobs report on January 9th is possibly a high-impact event.
Stronger than expected Non-Farm Payrolls or lower Unemployment could reduce FED rate cut odds, pressuring risk assets (Crypto, bearish). Weaker data may boost cut expectations and thus support crypto sentiment. March 2026 odds for the latter are currently ~70% per CME FedWatch.
Current Context: The latest available data from November 2025 reflects a cooling labor market too.
MSCI
Just coming in – 1H ago – MSCI announced to keep Crypto treasury companies in its indices.
That means Saylor’s company will remain listed, and end the uncertainty around whether Strategy would have to sell their assets.
The announcement that Strategy may get delisted was one of the most impactful reasons for October 10th’s crash.
The announcement was expected on January 15th, and the release now may come as a surprise. If true, it is of high importance and potentially bullish for the Crypto markets, and a delayed reaction can still get expected.
Edit Jan 7th: MSCI still includes Saylor, but changed the rules: No forced selling, but also no more automatic purchasing of new freshly emitted shares. Shut down Strategy's exploit to just emit more shares, then buy more Bitcoin and benefit of the rising price, to then emit more shares, and buy more Bitcoin... etc. That revolving door has been stopped (LINK).
Security
Ledger has suffered from another attack (LINK) leaking customer data.
Trezor isn’t much better, client data circulates too.
When purchasing any new Hardware Wallets, always use pseudonym names and a post box, for your own safety. Remember, the counter-party is not just the selling company, but also the carrier.
We still recommend Keystone – they delete data on your request immediately – or at the latest after 180 days automatically.
These are the most important topics of this week!
GM!
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